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High quality Report – Baby and Working Tax Credit statistics: Provisional awards – April 2022

Income Statistics 2019 to 2020: Summary for Tables 3.12 to 3.15a

Organisation unit – Information, Evaluation and Intelligence (KAI)

Title – F Alam

Perform – Analyst, Advantages and Cross Authorities Evaluation

Mail tackle – KAI Advantages and Cross Authorities Evaluation, HM Income and Customs, 100 Parliament Road, London, SW1A 2BQ

Electronic mail – benefitsandcredits.evaluation@hmrc.gov.uk


These statistics give attention to the variety of households benefiting from Baby Tax Credit score (CTC) and/or Working Tax Credit score (WTC) in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Eire as at 1 April 2022.

Tax credit had been launched in April 2003 changing Working Households’ Tax Credit score, Disabled Individual’s Tax Credit score and Kids’s Tax Credit score. They’re an necessary a part of the Authorities’s coverage goals to offer enough monetary incentives to work, scale back youngster poverty and to extend monetary help for all households.

WTC offers in-work help for individuals on low incomes, with or with out kids. It’s out there for in-work help to people who find themselves aged no less than 16 and meet a sure standards.

CTC offers income-related help for kids and qualifying younger individuals aged 16 to 19 who’re in full time, non-advanced schooling or authorised coaching right into a single tax credit score, payable to the principle carer. Households can declare CTC whether or not or not the adults are in work.

Extra details about tax credit eligibility could be discovered on GOV.UK.

Statistical presentation

The provisional awards statistics consists of a sequence of tables and graphs displaying the newest information on tax credit. The mixture statistics on tax credit score help is damaged down into numerous subcategories: household composition, household earnings, work standing, age and gender and geographical analyses.

The statistics additionally present breakdowns of households benefiting from every of the totally different parts of tax credit and offers data on the earnings utilized in calculating awards and the frequency of funds.

Statistical Processing

Supply information

The primary supply information used to create the provisional awards statistical publication is the tax credit interim dataset from HMRC’s tax credit administration system.

Information assortment

The interim dataset for this publication is a snapshot of all households receiving CTC or WTC on the reference date of 1 April 2022.

Information validation

Checks carried out on the information embrace:

analysts test that the variety of information loaded into the evaluation database is as anticipated.

analysts test that the variety of information as we undergo the code is as anticipated for various information created. These are in comparison with earlier years publications.

any giant modifications within the variety of claimants from one statistical launch to the subsequent are investigated.

High quality administration

High quality Assurance

All official statistics produced by KAI, should meet the requirements within the Code of Follow for Statistics produced by the UK Statistics Authority and all analysts adhere to greatest apply as set out within the ‘High quality’ pillar.

Analytical High quality Assurance describes the preparations and procedures put in place to make sure analytical outputs are error free and fit-for-purpose. It’s a necessary a part of KAI’s means of working because the complexity of our work and the velocity at which we’re requested to offer recommendation means there’s a excessive threat of error which may have severe penalties on KAI’s and HMRC’s status, selections, and in activate peoples’ lives.

Every bit of study is exclusive, and in consequence there is no such thing as a single high quality assurance (QA) guidelines that comprises all of the QA duties wanted for each mission. Nonetheless, analysts in KAI use a guidelines that summarises the important thing QA duties, and is used as a place to begin for groups when they’re contemplating what QA actions to undertake.

Groups amend and adapt it as they see match, to take account of the extent of threat related to their evaluation, and the totally different QA duties which are related to the work.

In the beginning of a mission, through the starting stage, analysts and managers make a risk-based determination on what degree of QA is required.

Analysts and managers assemble a plan for all of the QA duties that can must be accomplished, together with documentation on how every of these duties are to be carried out and switch this listing right into a QA guidelines particular to the mission.

Analysts perform the QA duties, replace the guidelines, and go onto the Senior Accountable Officer for evaluate and eventual log out.

High quality evaluation

The QA for this mission adhered to the framework described in ‘High quality assurance’ and the particular procedures undertaken had been as follows:

Stage 1 – Specifying the query

Earlier documentation was reviewed and outputs had been agreed with the related stakeholders.

Stage 2 – Growing a technique

The methodology used for the earlier yr’s evaluation was reviewed and was agreed with my staff to be acceptable for producing these statistics.

Stage 3 – Constructing and populating a mannequin and/or piece of code

A lot of the evaluation on this publication was carried out utilizing SAS, Excel, and R Studio (to supply the charts) and are consistent with good apply steering. Reproducible Analytical Pipelines (RAPs) can be utilised for future publications of the provisional award statistics.

Information inputs had been checked to make sure they had been fit-for-purpose by reviewing out there documentation and, the place potential, by direct contact with information suppliers.

QA of the enter information was carried out.

The evaluation was audited by somebody apart from the lead analyst – checking code and methodology.

Stage 4 – Operating and testing the mannequin and/or code

Outcomes had been in contrast with these produced in earlier years and variations understood and decided to be real.

Outcomes had been decided to be explainable and consistent with expectations.

Stage 5 – Drafting the ultimate outputs

Checks had been accomplished to make sure inner consistency (e.g., totals equal the sum of the elements).

The ultimate outputs had been independently proofread and checked.


The Provisional Awards statistics are at the moment printed bi-annually, in February or March and June or July. These statistics are as near real-time as potential and symbolize the image as firstly of April and December. These are Nationwide Statistics and the month of publication is indicated on HMRC’s launch schedule with the precise date being printed no less than 28 days earlier than its launch on HMRC’s statistics launch calendar.

The statistics contained on this publication can be of curiosity to anybody who’s on the lookout for the newest potential information on tax credit. Particularly, there are statistics on the extent of tax credit score help acquired based mostly upon household measurement, kind of household, in addition to the variety of kids in benefitting households, damaged down by age.

Lastly, the geographical analyses could be of curiosity on the extra native degree, giving some indication of the extent of presidency help in every area and native authority within the UK.

Accuracy and Reliability

The printed tables are based mostly on 100% information of households receiving CTC or WTC on the reference date of 1 April 2022.

The provisional numbers relate to the caseload place at a snapshot time limit, based mostly on the household circumstances we now have been knowledgeable of by every household previous to that individual time.

The finalised awards (printed in June or July annually) relate to the whole retrospective image for the yr, based mostly on a finalised view of household incomes and circumstances. The caseload inhabitants can be totally different, (so it needs to be famous that they’re NOT a revision as such for that reason) between the 2 publications because of HMRC figuring out the whole finalised image of the award.

Revision coverage

This coverage has been developed in accordance with the UK Statistics Authority Code of Follow for Official Statistics and HMRC’s Revisions Coverage. The HMRC official statistics insurance policies could be discovered on GOV.UK.

There are two sorts of revisions:

Scheduled revisions

Common, scheduled revisions because of the receipt of up to date data for the reason that earlier statistical publication.

Unscheduled revisions

HMRC goals to keep away from the necessity for unscheduled revisions to publications except they’re completely mandatory and put techniques and processes in place to minimise the variety of revisions. The place revisions are mandatory attributable to errors within the statistical course of, a proof together with the character and extent of revision can be supplied. The statistical launch and the accompanying tables can be up to date and printed as quickly as is sensible.

Timeliness and punctuality

The provisional awards statistics is produced bi-annually with sufficient time to supply the evaluation, perform high quality assurance and put together the fitting format for publication. The discharge has since been printed annually on the pre-announced date.

Accessibility and readability

HMRC has an elevated give attention to accessibility and all paperwork printed for this launch have met the Division’s accessibility necessities.

Provisional tax credit statistics are free and accessible to customers by way of the Analysis and Statistics web page on GOV.UK.

Latest provisional tax credit statistics are discovered within the Private tax credit statistics web page on GOV.UK.

Revealed statistics from earlier years can be found on the Nationwide Archives web site and could be accessed utilizing the next hyperlinks:

Publications can be found in PDF and Excel codecs and may simply be downloaded by customers. The most recent statistics publication is on the market in HTML and Open Doc Spreadsheet (ODS) codecs in compliance with the brand new accessibility necessities.

Coherence and comparability

It’s troublesome to totally evaluate this publication with any earlier releases, because of the quite a few coverage modifications affecting Baby and Working Tax Credit over the previous ten years. Nevertheless, evaluating this publication to the April 2021 and December 2021 releases reveals the numbers and traits are what can be anticipated. The explanations for modifications within the statistics are given within the launch commentary.

Commerce-offs between output high quality elements

We’re dedicated to making sure these statistics are as correct as potential and to minimise revisions attributable to errors, as such, the information can be printed in a well timed method taking into consideration the time wanted to hold out full and strong high quality assurance.

The provisional tax credit score statistics in April, fashions entitlement for the entire yr; although they’re a snapshot image compiled utilizing the information as at 1 April 2022.

It isn’t till finalisation (and thereby within the finalised award information publication) {that a} full retrospective image for the yr, based mostly on a finalised view of household incomes and circumstances, is understood. So, the trade-off that needs to be thought of is that figures for provisional awards are extra updated, however are topic to retrospective change.

The sizes of those modifications could be seen by evaluating the information for chosen dates in finalised awards with information printed earlier on provisional awards on the similar snapshot dates.

The provisional award information tables classify households in response to the degrees of their entitlement on the reference date, modelled from information on their circumstances and their newest annual incomes reported and processed by that date. The precise quantity being acquired at that date could be decrease, because of the restoration of earlier overpayments.

The tables describe as “recipients” all households with optimistic modelled entitlement, although in some circumstances the funds are diminished to zero.

Evaluation of person wants and perceptions

Customers can present suggestions by utilizing the contact particulars supplied within the publication.

HMRC launched a wide-ranging session on a variety of statistics on 8 February 2021.

Efficiency, price and respondent burden

A lot of the datasets used for this evaluation are taken from the tax credit administrative information and subsequently the price of finishing up this evaluation is minimal. The compilation of those statistics doesn’t impose any further burden on workers or employers.

Confidentiality, transparency and safety

All datasets used for these statistics are saved in a Managed Entry Folders (CAFs) that are accessible to just a few analysts who’re a part of the manufacturing staff and subsequently have enterprise must entry the information.

HMRC is dedicated is to the environment friendly administration of data as such our information are compliant with:

UK Basic Information Safety Regulation (UK GDPR) 2018

The Information Safety Act 2018

The Information Safety Act 1998

The Public Data Act 1968

The Freedom of Data Act 2000 (FOI) (particularly the Code of Follow on Data Administration issued underneath s46 FOI which requires that public authorities have efficient record-keeping preparations in place).

Underneath the rules for pre-release entry, data contained within the tables just isn’t given out in remaining kind sooner or later earlier than publication after which solely to nominated officers and ministers whose names are printed on the HMRC web site.

To keep away from the potential disclosure of details about particular person households, values have been supressed when underlying counts are low. An entry of “low’’ in a desk signifies that the information has been rounded right down to 0 or has been withheld consistent with HMRC’s Dominance and Disclosure coverage.

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