Home Personal Finance High quality Report – Provisional Tax Credit Statistics, December 2021

High quality Report – Provisional Tax Credit Statistics, December 2021

High quality Report – Provisional Tax Credit Statistics, December 2021

Organisation unit – Data, Evaluation and Intelligence (KAI)
Identify – O Jasper
Perform – Statistician, Advantages and Cross Authorities Evaluation
Mail tackle – KAI Advantages and Cross Authorities evaluation, HM Income and Customs, 100 Parliament Road, London, SW1A 2BQ
E mail – benefitsandcredits.evaluation@hmrc.gov.uk


These statistics concentrate on the variety of households benefiting from Youngster Tax Credit score (CTC) and/or Working Tax Credit score (WTC) in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Eire as at 1 December 2021.

Tax credit have been launched in April 2003 changing Working Households’ Tax Credit score, Disabled Individual’s Tax Credit score and Kids’s Tax Credit score. They’re an necessary a part of the Authorities’s coverage goals to offer enough monetary incentives to work, cut back little one poverty and to extend monetary help for all households.

WTC gives in-work help for folks on low incomes, with or with out youngsters. It’s out there for in-work help to people who find themselves aged at the least 16 and meet a sure standards.

CTC gives income-related help for kids and qualifying younger folks aged 16 to 19 who’re in full time, non-advanced schooling or authorised coaching right into a single tax credit score, payable to the principle carer. Households can declare CTC whether or not or not the adults are in work.

Extra details about tax credit eligibility might be discovered on GOV.UK.

Statistical presentation

The Provisional Awards Statistics consists of a sequence of tables and graphs exhibiting the most recent information on tax credit. The mixture statistics on tax credit score help is damaged down into varied subcategories: household composition, household revenue, work standing, age and gender and geographical analyses.

The statistics additionally present breakdowns of households benefiting from every of the totally different parts of tax credit and gives data on the revenue utilized in calculating awards and the frequency of funds.

Statistical processing

Supply information

The principle supply information used to create the Provisional Awards statistical publication is the tax credit interim dataset from the HMRC’s tax credit administration system.

Information assortment

The interim dataset for this publication is a random pattern of households receiving CTC or WTC on the reference date of 1 December 2021. The pattern includes 10 per cent of such single adults (with or with out youngsters) and 20 per cent of such {couples}. These figures are scaled as much as produce estimates for the variety of folks claiming CTC and WTC as on the reference date. How that is achieved is defined in part 6 under.

Information validation

Checks carried out on the information embody:

analysts test that the variety of data loaded into the evaluation database is as anticipated.

analysts test that the variety of data as we undergo the code is as anticipated for various information created. These are in comparison with earlier years publications.

any massive modifications within the variety of claimants from one statistical launch to the subsequent are investigated.

High quality administration

High quality assurance

All official statistics produced by KAI, should meet the requirements within the Code of Follow for Statistics produced by the UK Statistics Authority and all analysts adhere to finest follow as set out within the ‘High quality’ pillar.

Analytical High quality Assurance describes the preparations and procedures put in place to make sure analytical outputs are error free and fit-for-purpose. It’s a necessary a part of KAI’s means of working because the complexity of our work and the pace at which we’re requested to offer recommendation means there’s a excessive danger of error which may have critical penalties on KAI’s and HMRC’s repute, selections, and in activate peoples’ lives.

Each piece of study is exclusive, and consequently there isn’t any single high quality assurance (QA) guidelines that incorporates all of the QA duties wanted for each undertaking. Nonetheless, analysts in KAI use a guidelines that summarises the important thing QA duties, and is used as a place to begin for groups when they’re contemplating what QA actions to undertake.

Groups amend and adapt it as they see match, to take account of the extent of danger related to their evaluation, and the totally different QA duties which might be related to the work.

In the beginning of a undertaking, in the course of the starting stage, analysts and managers make a risk-based determination on what degree of QA is required.

Analysts and managers assemble a plan for all of the QA duties that may must be accomplished, together with documentation on how every of these duties are to be carried out and switch this listing right into a QA guidelines particular to the undertaking.

Analysts perform the QA duties, replace the guidelines, and go onto the Senior Accountable Officer for evaluation and eventual log out.

High quality evaluation

The QA for this undertaking adhered to the framework described in ‘4.1 High quality assurance’ and the precise procedures undertaken have been as follows:

Stage 1 – Specifying the query

earlier documentation was reviewed and outputs have been agreed with the related stakeholders

Stage 2 – Growing a technique

the methodology used for the earlier yr’s evaluation was reviewed and was agreed with my group to be acceptable for producing these statistics

Stage 3 – Constructing and populating a mannequin/piece of code

a lot of the evaluation on this publication was carried out utilizing SAS and Excel and are in keeping with good follow steerage

information inputs have been checked to make sure they have been fit-for-purpose by reviewing out there documentation and, the place potential, by means of direct contact with information suppliers

QA of the enter information was carried out

the evaluation was audited by somebody apart from the lead analyst – checking code and methodology

Stage 4 – Working and testing the mannequin/code

outcomes have been in contrast with these produced in earlier years and variations understood and decided to be real

outcomes have been decided to be explainable and in keeping with expectations

Stage 5 – Drafting the ultimate outputs

checks have been accomplished to make sure inside consistency (e.g., totals equal the sum of the parts).

the ultimate outputs have been independently proofread and checked.


The Provisional Awards statistics are at present revealed bi-annually, in February/March and June/July. These statistics are as near real-time as potential and signify the image as originally of April and December. These are Nationwide Statistics and the month of publication is indicated on HMRC’s launch schedule with the precise date being revealed at the least 28 days earlier than its launch on HMRC’s statistics launch calendar.

The statistics contained on this publication will probably be of curiosity to anybody who’s on the lookout for the most recent potential information on Tax Credit. Particularly, there are statistics on the extent of tax credit score help acquired based mostly upon household dimension, kind of household, in addition to the variety of youngsters in benefitting households, damaged down by age.

Lastly, the geographical analyses is likely to be of curiosity on the extra native degree, giving some indication of the extent of presidency help in every area and native authority within the UK.

Accuracy and reliability

The revealed tables are based mostly on a random pattern of households receiving CTC or WTC on the reference date of 1 December 2021. The pattern includes 10 per cent of such single adults (with or with out youngsters) and 20 per cent of such {couples}.

Every determine within the tables is derived by weighting the related pattern instances by the inverses of those sampling fractions. The figures within the tables are subsequently estimates, however we all know how correct they’re.

For instance, suppose that there are 100,000 {couples} with a attribute. This quantity will not be identified, and we’re to estimate it by way of the pattern. Every couple is sampled with a likelihood of 0.2.

Statistical idea says that there’s a 95 per cent likelihood that the quantity sampled will lie between 19,752 and 20,248, and that the ensuing estimate will lie between 98,760 and 101,240.

At the least roughly, then, the place an estimate of 100,000 is derived from the pattern, the true determine lies between these figures, with a 95 per cent likelihood. That’s, the “95 per cent confidence interval” for the estimate is the estimate itself plus or minus 1,240. The width of the boldness interval varies with the dimensions of the estimate and the sampling fraction, as proven within the desk under.

For estimates that comprise a combination of {couples} and single adults, the figures will lie between the 2 units proven, in keeping with the combination.

Sampling uncertainty

Because the figures are based mostly on pattern, subsequently they’re topic to sampling uncertainty. Values have been supressed for some the place underlying pattern counts are low. An entry of
‘-‘ in a desk signifies that the information has been rounded all the way down to 0 or has been withheld in keeping with HMRC’s Dominance and Disclosure coverage

The provisional numbers relate to the caseload place at a snapshot time limit, based mostly on the household circumstances now we have been knowledgeable of by every household previous to that specific time.

The finalised awards (revealed in June/July annually) relate to the entire retrospective image for the yr, based mostly on a finalised view of household incomes and circumstances.

The caseload inhabitants will probably be totally different, (so it ought to be famous that they’re NOT a revision as such for that reason) between the 2 publications on account of HMRC figuring out the entire finalised image of the award.

Revision coverage

This coverage has been developed in accordance with the UK Statistics Authority Code of Follow for Official Statistics and HMRC’s Revisions Coverage. The UK Statistics Authority Code of Follow might be discovered on GOV.UK.

There are two varieties of revisions:

Scheduled revisions

common, scheduled revisions as a result of receipt of up to date data for the reason that earlier statistical publication

Unscheduled revisions

HMRC goals to keep away from the necessity for unscheduled revisions to publications except they’re completely essential and put methods and processes in place to minimise the variety of revisions. The place revisions are essential on account of errors within the statistical course of, an evidence together with the character and extent of revision can be supplied. The statistical launch and the accompanying tables will probably be up to date and revealed as quickly as is sensible.

Timeliness and punctuality

The Provisional Awards Statistics is produced bi-annually with sufficient time to supply the evaluation, perform high quality assurance and put together the correct format for publication. The discharge has since been revealed annually on the pre-announced date.

Accessibility and readability

HMRC has an elevated concentrate on accessibility and all paperwork revealed for this launch have met the Division’s accessibility necessities.

Provisional tax credit statistics are free and accessible to customers by way of the UK Nationwide Statistics publication hub

Publications can be found in PDF and Excel codecs and might simply be downloaded by customers. The most recent statistics publication is out there in HTML and Open Doc Spreadsheet (ODS) codecs in compliance with the brand new accessibility necessities.

You may also entry the earlier publications by visiting the HMRC’s statistics on The Nation Archives web site.

Coherence and comparability

It’s tough to completely evaluate this publication with any earlier releases, as a result of quite a few coverage modifications affecting Youngster and Working Tax Credit over the previous ten years. Adjustments in geographical boundaries and space codes have additionally had an impression on time sequence evaluation.

For the reason that final provisional awards publication (April 2021) the next native authorities have been abolished:

Corby District Council

Daventry District Council

East Northants District Council

Kettering Borough Council

South Northants District Council

The Borough Council of Wellingborough

Northamptonshire County Council

These have been changed by 2 unitary councils:

North Northamptonshire

West Northamptonshire

Commerce-offs between output high quality parts

We’re dedicated to making sure these statistics are as correct as potential and to minimise revisions on account of errors, as such, the information will probably be revealed in a well timed method taking into consideration the time wanted to hold out full and sturdy high quality assurance.

The Provisional Tax Credit score Statistics in December fashions entitlement for the entire yr; regardless that they’re a snapshot image compiled utilizing the information as at 1 December 2021.

It isn’t till finalisation (and thereby within the finalised award information publication) {that a} full retrospective image for the yr, based mostly on a finalised view of household incomes and circumstances, is understood. So, the trade-off that ought to be thought-about is that figures for provisional awards are extra updated, however are topic to retrospective change.

The sizes of those modifications might be seen by evaluating the information for chosen dates in finalised awards with information revealed earlier on provisional awards on the similar snapshot dates.

The provisional award information tables classify households in keeping with the degrees of their entitlement on the reference date, modelled from information on their circumstances and their newest annual incomes reported and processed by that date. The precise quantity being acquired at that date might be decrease, as a result of restoration of earlier overpayments.

The tables describe as ‘recipients’ all households with constructive modelled entitlement, although in some instances the funds are decreased to zero.

Evaluation of person wants and perceptions

Customers can present suggestions by utilizing the contact particulars supplied within the publication.

HMRC launched a wide-ranging session on a variety of statistics on 8 February 2021.

Efficiency, price and respondent burden

Many of the datasets used for this evaluation are taken from the tax credit administrative information and subsequently the price of finishing up this evaluation is minimal. The compilation of those statistics doesn’t impose any extra burden on workers or employers.

Confidentiality, transparency and safety

All datasets used for these statistics are saved in a Managed Entry Folders (CAFs) that are accessible to just a few analysts who’re a part of the manufacturing group and subsequently have enterprise must entry the information.

HMRC is dedicated is to the environment friendly administration of knowledge as such our data are compliant with:

UK Common Information Safety Regulation (UK GDPR) 2018

The Information Safety Act 2018

The Information Safety Act 1998

The Public Data Act 1968

The Freedom of Info Act 2000 (FOI) (particularly the Code of Follow on Data Administration issued beneath s46 FOI which requires that public authorities have efficient record-keeping preparations in place).

Underneath the rules for pre-release entry, data contained within the tables will not be given out in remaining kind sooner or later earlier than publication after which solely to nominated officers and ministers whose names are revealed on the HMRC web site.

To keep away from the potential disclosure of details about particular person households, values have been supressed when underlying pattern counts are low. An entry of ‘-‘ in a desk signifies that the information has been rounded all the way down to 0 or has been withheld in keeping with HMRC’s Dominance and Disclosure coverage.