15 March 2022
The labour market statistics had been printed at the moment by the Northern Eire Statistics & Analysis Company.
Labour market statistics
Payrolled staff now greater than pre-COVID for the ninth consecutive month
The variety of staff receiving pay via HMRC PAYE in NI in February 2022 was 777,300, a rise of 0.5% over the month and 5.4% over the 12 months. That is the best on report and the ninth consecutive month that worker numbers have been above pre-COVID ranges.
Earnings from the HMRC PAYE indicated that NI staff had a median month-to-month pay of £1,904 in February 2022, a lower of £35 (1.8%) over the month and a rise of £113 (6.3%) over the 12 months.
Lowest NI Claimant Depend (Experimental Sequence) complete since March 2020
In February 2022, the seasonally adjusted variety of individuals on the claimant rely was 39,600 (4.0% of the workforce), a lower of 900 (2.3%) from the earlier month’s revised determine. The February claimant rely is 38% under the current peak in Might 2020, and 30% greater than the pre-pandemic rely in March 2020.
Low variety of confirmed redundancies because the starting of 2022
NISRA, appearing on behalf of the Division for the Economic system, acquired affirmation that 40 redundancies occurred in February 2022. Over the 12 months from 1st March 2021 to twenty eighth February 2022, 2,070 redundancies had been confirmed, 64% lower than within the earlier 12 months.
There have been 210 proposed redundancies in February 2022. This follows no, or low, proposed redundancies in every of the months between September and January 2022. Over the 12 months March 2021 to February 2022, 2,040 redundancies had been proposed, 81% lower than within the earlier 12 months
Worker jobs attain a sequence excessive in December 2021
The variety of worker jobs in December 2021 was estimated at 782,450, reaching a sequence excessive. This was a rise of two,850 jobs over the quarter and 12,290 jobs over the 12 months. Neither the quarterly nor the annual modifications in worker jobs had been discovered to be statistically important. December 2021 estimates confirmed that worker jobs at the moment are above the pre-pandemic December 2019 degree (2,410 jobs).
December 2021 worker jobs estimates reported a sequence excessive throughout the providers sector (636,290 jobs).
Quarterly will increase in worker jobs had been seen throughout the providers (2,250 jobs) and building (920 jobs) sectors to December 2021. There have been decreases throughout the manufacturing (290 jobs) and different industries (30 jobs) sectors over the quarter.
Annual will increase in worker jobs had been seen throughout the providers (11,790 jobs) and manufacturing (600 jobs) sectors. The development and different industries sectors each skilled marginal decreases of fifty jobs over the 12 months to December 2021.
Personal sector jobs elevated each over the quarter (700 jobs) and the 12 months (7,660 jobs) to 563,940 jobs in December 2021. Public sector jobs additionally elevated over each the quarter (1,440 jobs) and the 12 months (4,650 jobs) to 217,790 jobs in December 2021.
Labour Pressure Survey headline measures
The newest NI seasonally adjusted unemployment price (the proportion of economically energetic individuals aged 16+ who had been unemployed) for the interval November-January 2022 was estimated from the Labour Pressure Survey at 2.7%. The unemployment price decreased by 0.8 share factors (pps) over the quarter and over the 12 months. The quarterly change was statistically important and is prone to replicate actual change.
The employment price (proportion of individuals aged 16 to 64 in work) was unchanged over the quarter and elevated by 0.3pps over the 12 months to 70.4%. Neither the quarterly nor annual modifications had been statistically important.
The whole variety of weekly hours labored in NI was estimated at 26.9million, a lower of three.2% on the earlier quarter and a rise of 4.2% over the 12 months.
The financial inactivity price (the proportion of individuals aged 16 to 64 who weren’t working and never in search of or obtainable to work) elevated over the quarter by 0.6pps and over the 12 months by 0.3pps to 27.5%. Neither the quarterly nor annual modifications had been statistically important.
Worker indicators stay optimistic with payrolled staff, payroll earnings and variety of worker jobs (as reported by companies) all above the pre-pandemic degree. Employment ranges (which incorporates self-employed) and complete hours labored have but to return to pre-pandemic ranges and equally claimant rely, unemployment and financial inactivity all stay above.
The newest HMRC payroll knowledge was the best degree on report in February and three.3% above these recorded in March 2020 pre-COVID. Companies reported, through the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES), that worker jobs elevated over each the quarter and the 12 months, reaching a sequence excessive in December 2021 (and a couple of,410 jobs above pre-pandemic). The annual enhance in worker jobs was largely pushed by the providers sector which additionally reached a sequence excessive in December 2021.
There have been 210 proposed redundancies in February 2022 following no, or low, proposed redundancies within the later months of 2021 and January 2022. This quantity is, nonetheless, nonetheless nicely under the common variety of proposed redundancies within the second half of 2020 (at 1,050 per 30 days). Equally confirmed redundancies in January and February 2022 had been a lot decrease than the month-to-month common throughout 2021 (20 and 40 respectively in comparison with 240).
The Labour Pressure Survey exhibits a statistically important quarterly change within the unemployment price to November-January 2022, the place the speed decreased (-0.8pps) to 2.7%. In comparison with the pre-pandemic ranges in November-January 2020, the full variety of hours labored in November-January 2022 was 6.7% under, while the employment price was 1.8pps under. Each the unemployment and financial inactivity charges stay above the pre-pandemic place (0.3pps and 1.6pps above, respectively).
Notes to editors:
The statistical report and related tables can be found on the Labour Market Overview web page of the NISRA web site.
The Northern Eire Statistics and Analysis Company needs to thank the collaborating households and companies for collaborating within the Labour Pressure Survey and Quarterly Employment Survey.
Immediately’s launch accommodates up to date labour market indicators from family surveys, enterprise surveys, and administrative knowledge sources. Though the broad ideas are comparable throughout sources, variations in reference intervals, definitions and methodology exist which affect the interpretation of the statistics. Of specific be aware is the ‘location’ of the furloughed within the estimates. Those that had been furloughed beneath the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) or receiving a grant via the Self Employment Earnings Help Scheme (SEISS) are included within the Labour Pressure Survey (LFS) estimates of employment and never throughout the LFS unemployment estimates. Equally, staff on the CJRS are included within the HMRC rely of staff paid via payroll, and the Quarterly Employment Survey estimate of worker jobs. In distinction, a proportion of these receiving grants via CJRS and SEISS could also be accessing Common Credit score unemployment advantages as a ‘top-up’ fee and are included within the experimental Claimant Depend. The CJRS ended on thirtieth September 2021, which was additionally the final date for making a SEISS declare.
‘Over the quarter’ seek advice from comparisons between the newest quarterly estimates for the interval November-January 2022 and the quarter previous that (i.e. August-October 2021). ‘Over the 12 months’ seek advice from comparisons between the newest quarterly estimates for the interval November-January 2022 and people of the corresponding quarter one 12 months beforehand (i.e. November-January 2021). Adjustments which can be discovered to be important in a statistical sense (i.e. the place the estimated change exceeded the variability anticipated from a pattern survey of this measurement and was prone to replicate actual change) shall be particularly highlighted.
Estimates referring to November-January 2022 ought to be in contrast with the estimates for August-October 2021. This gives a extra sturdy estimate than evaluating with the estimates for October-December 2021, because the November and December knowledge are included inside each estimates.
The official measure of unemployment is from the Labour Pressure Survey. This measure of unemployment pertains to individuals with out a job who had been obtainable for work and had both appeared for work within the final 4 weeks or had been ready to begin a job. That is the Worldwide Labour Organisation definition. Labour Pressure Survey estimates are topic to sampling error. Because of this the precise determine is prone to be contained in a variety surrounding the estimate quoted. For instance, the unemployment price is prone to fall inside 0.6pps of the quoted estimate (i.e. between 2.1% and three.3%).
The claimant rely is an administrative knowledge supply derived from Jobs and Advantages Places of work techniques, which data the variety of individuals claiming unemployment-related advantages. In March 2018 the NI claimant rely measure modified from one primarily based solely on Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) to an experimental measure primarily based on JSA claimants and out-of-work Common Credit score (UC) claimants who had been claiming principally for the explanation of being unemployed. These claiming unemployment-related advantages (both UC or JSA) could also be wholly unemployed and in search of work, or could also be employed however with low earnings and/or low hours, that make them eligible for unemployment-related profit assist. Below UC a broader span of claimants grew to become eligible for unemployment-related profit than beneath the earlier profit regime.
The current modifications in claimant rely can largely be attributed to the rise within the numbers of individuals turning into unemployed or having their hours decreased leading to very low earnings under the executive earnings threshold. There could also be some individuals, beforehand not eligible for UC resulting from associate earnings, now eligible because of work allowance will increase who would now be included throughout the rely. We’re not in a position to determine the extent to which every group has contributed to the rise in claimant rely.
Worker jobs figures are taken from the Quarterly Employment Survey; a survey of public sector organisations and personal sector companies. Headline totals for worker jobs are seasonally adjusted. Estimates for business sub-sections at 2 digit SIC degree are usually not adjusted for seasonality. The QES survey date was sixth December 2021.
Redundancies are supplied by corporations beneath the Employment Rights (Northern Eire) Order 1996 (Amended 8 October 2006) whereby they’re legally required to inform the Division of impending redundancies of 20 or extra staff. Firms who suggest fewer than 20 redundancies are usually not required to inform the Division, due to this fact the figures supplied are prone to be an underestimate of complete job losses, nonetheless, it isn’t attainable to quantify the extent of the shortfall. All different issues being equal we’d anticipate extra redundancies in sectors dominated by giant companies as they’re the companies that meet the 20 or extra collective redundancy standards.
To forestall the potential identification of particular person companies, redundancy totals referring to fewer than 3 companies are usually not disclosed. The Statistical Disclosure Management Coverage is on the market on the redundancies background web page of the NISRA web site. The place the variety of companies doesn’t meet the edge for launch (as detailed within the Statistical Disclosure Management Coverage), particular person month-to-month totals are usually not printed.
HMRC’s Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Actual Time Data (RTI) system is an administrative knowledge supply. The PAYE RTI system is the system employers makes use of to take Earnings Tax and Nationwide Insurance coverage contributions earlier than they pay wages to staff. These knowledge relate to staff paid by employers solely, and don’t embrace self-employment earnings.
Estimates of the variety of paid staff and worker earnings from PAYE are classed as experimental statistics as they’re nonetheless of their improvement section. Consequently the info are topic to revisions. Early estimates (flash estimates) for February 2022 are primarily based on round 85% of knowledge, and shall be topic to revision within the subsequent month’s launch when between 98% and 99% of knowledge shall be obtainable (fundamental estimates). The scale of revisions to fundamental and flash estimates are comparable for workers, whereas revisions to earnings flash estimates are usually bigger than fundamental estimate revisions. The HMRC PAYE covers the entire inhabitants relatively than a pattern of staff or corporations. Information are primarily based on the place staff reside and never the situation of their place of job throughout the UK. Information are seasonally adjusted however not adjusted for inflation.
Following the newest reweighting of LFS estimates in July 2021 which impacted datasets from January 2020, an additional reweighting is deliberate. The estimates for NI didn’t have the non-response bias adjustment from the current reweighting totally utilized and as well as there was a small error within the implementation of the reweighting methodology affecting all UK estimates. NISRA will present additional element on timelines for the reweighting in the end, the place LFS quarterly and annual datasets shall be reweighted again to January 2020.
The Labour Market Report shall be of curiosity to coverage makers, public our bodies, the enterprise neighborhood, banks, financial commentators, lecturers, and most of the people with an curiosity within the native economic system.
The following Labour Market Report shall be printed on the NISRA web site on Tuesday twelfth April 2022.
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