Date revealed:
11 October 2022
The labour market statistics have been revealed at the moment by the Northern Eire Statistics and Analysis Company.
Labour market statistics revealed
The labour market statistics have been revealed at the moment by the Northern Eire Statistics and Analysis Company.
Key factors
Payrolled workers and month-to-month earnings recorded a lower over the month
The variety of workers receiving pay by way of HMRC PAYE in NI in September 2022 was 780,800, a 0.1 per cent lower over the month and a 2.6 per cent improve over the 12 months. This was the primary month-to-month lower in over a 12 months (since August 2021).
Earnings from the HMRC PAYE indicated that NI workers had a median month-to-month pay of £1,944 in September 2022, a lower of £31 (1.6 per cent) over the month and a rise of £102 (5.5 per cent) over the 12 months. This was the biggest month-to-month lower in earnings in over a 12 months.
First month-to-month improve within the claimant rely quantity since February 2021
In September 2022, the seasonally adjusted variety of folks on the claimant rely was 35,900 (3.8 per cent of the workforce), which was a rise of 1.3 per cent from the earlier month’s revised determine. This represents the primary month-to-month improve within the claimant rely since February 2021. The September claimant rely stays increased than the pre-pandemic rely in March 2020 (by 20.6 per cent).
Newest twelve-month totals of each proposed and confirmed redundancies stay low
NISRA, performing on behalf of the Division for the Economic system, acquired affirmation that 150 redundancies occurred in September 2022, taking the annual whole to 1,100.
190 redundancies have been proposed in September 2022, following low or no redundancies in July and August. Over the 12 months October 2021 to September 2022, 1,410 redundancies have been proposed.
Labour Power Survey (LFS) headline measures
The newest NI seasonally adjusted unemployment fee (the proportion of economically lively folks aged 16 and over who have been unemployed) for the interval June-August 2022 was estimated from the Labour Power Survey at 3.0 per cent. This was a rise of 0.4 share factors (pps) over the quarter and a lower of 1.4pps over the 12 months. The annual change was statistically important.
The proportion of individuals aged 16 to 64 in work (the employment fee) decreased by 0.1pps over the quarter and elevated by 0.9pps over the 12 months to 69.9 per cent. Neither the quarterly nor annual adjustments have been statistically important. The entire variety of weekly hours labored in NI (26.7 million) decreased by 4.5 per cent over the quarter and elevated by 1.2 per cent over the 12 months.
The financial inactivity fee (the proportion of individuals aged 16 to 64 who weren’t working and never searching for or accessible to work) decreased by 0.2pps over the quarter and elevated by 0.1pps over the 12 months to 27.8 per cent. Neither the quarterly nor annual adjustments have been statistically important.
Commentary
The newest labour market launch exhibits that, while the vast majority of indicators proceed to report enhancements over the 12 months, some indicators are exhibiting a worsening place over the short-term.
Notably all three administrative information sources level to a worsening labour market within the brief time period with 190 redundancies proposed in September following no or low redundancies over the summer season months; the claimant rely exhibiting the primary substantial improve since February 2021; and HMRC PAYE information exhibiting the primary month-to-month lower in payrolled earnings, and the biggest lower in month-to-month earnings, in over a 12 months.
The newest HMRC payroll information confirmed that payrolled worker numbers are actually 3.8 per cent above these recorded in March 2020 pre-COVID and a pair of.6 per cent increased than September 2021. Payroll earnings are actually 11.4 per cent above pre-COVID stage, nonetheless this was the bottom improve of all twelve UK areas.
The claimant rely estimate elevated over the month to September 2022 from the revised estimate for August 2022. The claimant rely fee, nonetheless, has remained at 3.8 per cent for the fifth consecutive month.
The Labour Power Survey (LFS) exhibits a statistically important lower within the unemployment fee over the 12 months to June-August 2022 to three.0 per cent. When in comparison with pre-pandemic ranges in December-February 2020, the full variety of hours labored in June-August 2022 was 7.0 per cent under, while the employment fee was 2.5pps under. The financial inactivity fee stays 2.2pps above the pre-pandemic place and the unemployment fee is 0.5pps above the pre-pandemic interval.
Notes to editors:
The statistical report and related tables can be found at :Labour Market report – October 2022
The Northern Eire Statistics and Analysis Company needs to thank the taking part households for participating within the Labour Power Survey.
‘Over the quarter’ confer with comparisons between the newest quarterly estimates for the interval June-August 2022 and the quarter previous that (i.e. March-Could 2022). ‘Over the 12 months’ confer with comparisons between the newest quarterly estimates for the interval June-August 2022 and people of the corresponding quarter one 12 months beforehand (i.e. June-August 2021). Adjustments which might be discovered to be important in a statistical sense (ie the place the estimated change exceeded the variability anticipated from a pattern survey of this dimension and was prone to replicate actual change) can be particularly highlighted.
Estimates referring to June-August 2022 needs to be in contrast with the estimates for March-Could. This offers a extra strong estimate than evaluating with the estimates for Could-July, because the June and July information are included inside each estimates.
The official measure of unemployment is from the Labour Power Survey. This measure of unemployment pertains to folks with no job who have been accessible for work and had both appeared for work within the final 4 weeks or have been ready to start out a job. That is the Worldwide Labour Organisation definition. Labour Power Survey estimates are topic to sampling error. Which means the precise determine is prone to be contained in a variety surrounding the estimate quoted. For instance, the unemployment fee is prone to fall inside 0.7pps of the quoted estimate (i.e. between 2.4 per cent and three.7 per cent).
The claimant rely is an administrative information supply derived from Jobs and Advantages Workplaces programs, which information the variety of folks claiming unemployment-related advantages. In March 2018 the NI claimant rely measure modified from one based mostly solely on Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) to an experimental measure based mostly on JSA claimants and out-of-work Common Credit score (UC) claimants who have been claiming principally for the explanation of being unemployed. These claiming unemployment-related advantages (both UC or JSA) could also be wholly unemployed and searching for work, or could also be employed however with low revenue and/or low hours, that make them eligible for unemployment-related profit assist. Underneath UC a broader span of claimants turned eligible for unemployment-related profit than underneath the earlier profit regime.
Redundancies are offered by firms underneath the Employment Rights (Northern Eire) Order 1996 (Amended 8 October 2006) whereby they’re legally required to inform the Division of impending redundancies of 20 or extra workers. Corporations who suggest fewer than 20 redundancies aren’t required to inform the Division, due to this fact the figures offered are prone to be an underestimate of whole job losses, nonetheless, it isn’t doable to quantify the extent of the shortfall. All different issues being equal we’d anticipate extra redundancies in sectors dominated by giant companies as they’re the companies that meet the 20 or extra collective redundancy standards.
To stop the potential identification of particular person companies, redundancy totals referring to fewer than 3 companies aren’t disclosed. The Statistical Disclosure Management Coverage is on the market right here: Redundancies background data. The place the variety of companies doesn’t meet the edge for launch (as detailed within the Statistical Disclosure Management Coverage), particular person month-to-month totals aren’t revealed.
HMRC’s Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Actual Time Info (RTI) system is an administrative information supply. The PAYE RTI system is the system employers use to take Earnings Tax and Nationwide Insurance coverage contributions earlier than they pay wages to workers. These information relate to workers paid by employers solely, and don’t embrace self-employment revenue.
Estimates of the variety of paid workers and worker earnings from PAYE are classed as experimental statistics as they’re nonetheless of their growth section. Consequently the information are topic to revisions. Early estimates (flash estimates) for September 2022 are based mostly on round 85 per cent of data, and can be topic to revision within the subsequent month’s launch when between 98 per cent and 99 per cent of information can be accessible (major estimates). The dimensions of revisions to major and flash estimates are related for workers, whereas revisions to earnings flash estimates are sometimes bigger than major estimate revisions. The HMRC PAYE covers the entire inhabitants slightly than a pattern of workers or firms. Knowledge are based mostly on the place workers dwell and never the placement of their place of job inside the UK. Knowledge are seasonally adjusted however not adjusted for inflation.
At present’s publication of the Labour Market Report (LMR) marks the second launch in HTML format. The content material and format of the report and month-to-month tables have modified to make them extra consumer pleasant and interactive, enhancing accessibility, and rising automation of their manufacturing. Because the tables have modified, a mapping doc has been created exhibiting the connection between outdated and new tables. As well as, the LMR, supplementary paperwork and information tables will all be accessible on one webpage with hyperlinks added to particular person information supply pages directing customers to the newest information.
The Labour Market Report can be of curiosity to coverage makers, public our bodies, the enterprise neighborhood, banks, financial commentators, teachers, and most people with an curiosity within the native economic system.
The following Labour Market Report can be revealed on the NISRA web site on Tuesday 15 November 2022.
For media enquiries contact the Division for the Economic system Press Workplace at: pressoffice@economy-ni.gov.uk.
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Suggestions is welcomed and needs to be addressed to: Accountable statistician: Mark McFetridge, Financial & Labour Market Statistics (ELMS), Mark.McFetridge@nisra.gov.uk or Tel: 028 902 55172.
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