Date printed:
14 December 2021
The labour market statistics had been printed right this moment by the Northern Eire Statistics and Analysis Company.
Labour market statistics
Key factors
Payrolled workers now increased than pre-COVID for the sixth consecutive month
The variety of workers receiving pay by means of HMRC PAYE in NI in November 2021 was 771,000, a rise of 0.7 per cent over the month and 4.9 per cent over the yr. That is the best on report and the sixth consecutive month that worker numbers have been above pre-COVID ranges.
Earnings from the HMRC PAYE indicated that NI workers had a median month-to-month pay of £1,848 in November 2021, a rise of £3 (0.2 per cent) over the month and a rise of £68 (3.8 per cent) over the yr.
NI Claimant Depend (Experimental Collection) decreased for the ninth consecutive month
In November 2021, the seasonally adjusted variety of individuals on the claimant depend was 44,500 (4.5 per cent of the workforce), a lower of 1,500 (3.4 per cent) from the earlier month’s revised determine. The November claimant depend is 30 per cent under the latest peak in Might 2020, and 46 per cent increased than the pre-pandemic depend in March 2020.
Lowest rolling 12-month whole of proposed redundancies since 2014
Over the yr from 1st December 2020 to thirtieth November 2021, 2,280 redundancies had been proposed, 79 per cent lower than within the earlier 12 months.
NISRA, appearing on behalf of the Division for the Economic system, obtained affirmation that 130 redundancies occurred in November 2021. At 3,070, the annual whole was 35 per cent lower than within the earlier yr (4,730).
Third consecutive quarterly improve in worker jobs pushed by companies sector
The variety of worker jobs in September 2021 was estimated at 779,470. This was a rise of seven,520 jobs (+1.0 per cent) over the quarter and eight,070 jobs (+1.0 per cent) over the yr. Neither the quarterly nor the annual adjustments in worker jobs had been discovered to be statistically vital. September 2021 estimates confirmed that worker jobs have virtually returned to the pre-pandemic December 2019 degree (-0.1 per cent or -460 jobs), and it marks the primary annual improve since June 2020.
September 2021 marked the third consecutive quarterly improve in worker jobs, following 4 earlier quarters of decline.
Quarterly will increase in worker jobs had been seen inside the companies (+6,100 jobs) and manufacturing (+1,520 jobs) sectors to September 2021. There have been marginal decreases inside the building (-40 jobs) and different industries (-60 jobs) sectors over the quarter.
All broad trade sectors aside from building skilled a rise in worker jobs over the yr to September 2021, with the companies sector reporting the largest annual improve (+6,100 jobs). The development sector skilled a lower of 5.4 per cent (-1,930 jobs) over the yr to September 2021.
Personal sector jobs elevated each over the quarter (+0.9 per cent or +5,260 jobs) and the yr (+0.7 per cent or +3,680 jobs) to 563,120 jobs in September 2021. Public sector jobs additionally elevated over each the quarter (+0.8 per cent or +1,630 jobs) and the yr (+2.0 per cent, or +4,300 jobs) to 216,710 jobs in September 2021.
Labour Power Survey headline measures
The most recent NI seasonally adjusted unemployment charge (the proportion of economically energetic individuals aged 16+ who had been unemployed) for the interval August-October 2021 was estimated from the Labour Power Survey at 3.6 per cent. The unemployment charge decreased by 0.4 proportion factors (pps) over the quarter and by 0.2pps over the yr. Neither the quarterly nor annual adjustments had been statistically vital.
The proportion of individuals aged 16 to 64 in work (the employment charge) decreased over the quarter and over the yr by 0.8pps to 70.4 per cent. Neither the quarterly nor annual adjustments had been statistically vital.
The financial inactivity charge (the proportion of individuals aged 16 to 64 who weren’t working and never searching for or accessible to work) elevated over the quarter by 1.1pps and over the yr by 1.0pps to 26.9 per cent. Neither the quarterly nor annual adjustments had been statistically vital.
The overall variety of weekly hours labored in NI was estimated at 27.8million, a rise of two.2 per cent on the earlier quarter and a rise of 5.2 per cent on the equal interval final yr.
Commentary
Payrolled workers and payroll earnings proceed to be above the pre-pandemic degree, while worker jobs virtually returned to the pre-pandemic peak degree in September. Employment ranges (which incorporates self-employed) and hours labored have but to return to pre-pandemic ranges and equally claimant depend, unemployment and financial inactivity all stay above.
The most recent HMRC payroll information was the best degree on report in November and a couple of.5 per cent above these recorded in March 2020 pre-COVID. Companies reported, by way of the Quarterly Employment Survey, that worker jobs elevated over each the quarter and the yr to 779,470 jobs in September 2021. Though this whole is barely under the pre-pandemic December 2019 sequence excessive (-0.1 per cent or -460 jobs) it marks the primary annual improve since June 2020. The annual improve was largely pushed by the companies sector (+1.2 per cent or +7,630 jobs).
The variety of proposed and confirmed redundancies remained low in latest months. The annual whole proposed redundancies to November (2,280) is the bottom rolling-twelve month whole since January 2014, whereas there was a 35 per cent lower in confirmed redundancies to November when in comparison with the earlier yr.
The Labour Power Survey reveals the whole variety of hours labored (August-October 2021) has elevated by 5.2 per cent over the yr. In comparison with the pre-pandemic ranges in November-January 2020, the whole variety of hours labored in August-October was 3.6 per cent under, while the employment charge was 1.9pps under. Each the unemployment and financial inactivity charges stay above the pre-pandemic place (1.2pps and 1.0pps above, respectively).
Notes to editors:
The statistical report and related tables can be found at: Labour Market overview
The Northern Eire Statistics and Analysis Company needs to thank the taking part households and companies for collaborating within the Labour Power Survey and Quarterly Employment Survey.
At the moment’s launch comprises up to date labour market indicators from family surveys, enterprise surveys and administrative information sources. Though the broad ideas are comparable throughout sources, variations in reference durations, definitions and methodology exist which affect the interpretation of the statistics. Of explicit observe is the ‘location’ of the furloughed within the estimates. Those that had been furloughed below the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) or receiving a grant by means of the Self Employment Revenue Assist Scheme (SEISS) are included within the Labour Power Survey (LFS) estimates of employment and never inside the LFS unemployment estimates. Equally, workers on the CJRS are included within the HMRC depend of workers paid by means of payroll, and the Quarterly Employment Survey estimate of worker jobs. In distinction, a proportion of these receiving grants by means of CJRS and SEISS could also be accessing Common Credit score unemployment advantages as a ‘top-up’ cost and are included within the experimental Claimant Depend. The CJRS ended on thirtieth September 2021, which was additionally the final date for making a SEISS declare.
‘Over the quarter’ refers to comparisons between the newest quarterly estimates for the interval August-October 2021 and the quarter previous that (i.e. Might-July 2021). ‘Over the yr’ refers to comparisons between the newest quarterly estimates for the interval August-October 2021 and people of the corresponding quarter one yr beforehand (i.e. August-October 2020). Modifications which can be discovered to be vital in a statistical sense (i.e. the place the estimated change exceeded the variability anticipated from a pattern survey of this measurement and was more likely to mirror actual change) might be particularly highlighted.
Estimates regarding August-October 2021 ought to be in contrast with the estimates for Might-July 2021. This gives a extra sturdy estimate than evaluating with the estimates for July-September 2021, because the August and September information are included inside each estimates.
The official measure of unemployment is from the Labour Power Survey. This measure of unemployment pertains to individuals with no job who had been accessible for work and had both appeared for work within the final 4 weeks or had been ready to begin a job. That is the Worldwide Labour Organisation definition. Labour Power Survey estimates are topic to sampling error. Which means the precise determine is more likely to be contained in a variety surrounding the estimate quoted. For instance, the unemployment charge is more likely to fall inside 0.7pps of the quoted estimate (ie between 2.9 per cent and 4.3 per cent).
The claimant depend is an administrative information supply derived from Jobs and Advantages Workplaces methods, which data the variety of individuals claiming unemployment-related advantages. In March 2018 the NI claimant depend measure modified from one based mostly solely on Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) to an experimental measure based mostly on JSA claimants and out-of-work Common Credit score (UC) claimants who had been claiming principally for the rationale of being unemployed. These claiming unemployment-related advantages (both UC or JSA) could also be wholly unemployed and searching for work, or could also be employed however with low revenue and/or low hours, that make them eligible for unemployment-related profit help. Beneath UC a broader span of claimants turned eligible for unemployment-related profit than below the earlier profit regime.
The latest adjustments in claimant depend can largely be attributed to the rise within the numbers of individuals changing into unemployed or having their hours diminished leading to very low earnings under the executive earnings threshold. There could also be some individuals, beforehand not eligible for UC on account of companion earnings, now eligible on account of work allowance will increase who would now be included inside the depend. We aren’t in a position to determine the extent to which every group has contributed to the rise in claimant depend.
Worker jobs figures are taken from the Quarterly Employment Survey; a survey of public sector organisations and personal sector companies. Headline totals for worker jobs are seasonally adjusted. Estimates for trade sub-sections at 2 digit SIC degree will not be adjusted for seasonality. The QES survey date was sixth September 2021. Those that are furloughed below the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) are included in worker jobs estimates
Redundancies are supplied by corporations below the Employment Rights (Northern Eire) Order 1996 (Amended 8 October 2006) whereby they’re legally required to inform the Division of impending redundancies of 20 or extra workers. Firms who suggest fewer than 20 redundancies will not be required to inform the Division, subsequently the figures supplied are more likely to be an underestimate of whole job losses, nonetheless, it’s not doable to quantify the extent of the shortfall. All different issues being equal we might anticipate extra redundancies in sectors dominated by giant companies as they’re the companies that meet the 20 or extra collective redundancy standards.
To forestall the potential identification of particular person companies, redundancy totals regarding fewer than 3 companies will not be disclosed. The Statistical Disclosure Management Coverage is on the market right here: Redundancies background data. The place the variety of companies doesn’t meet the brink for launch (as detailed within the Statistical Disclosure Management Coverage), particular person month-to-month totals will not be printed.
HMRC’s Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Actual Time Data (RTI) system is an administrative information supply. The PAYE RTI system is the system employers use to take Revenue Tax and Nationwide Insurance coverage contributions earlier than they pay wages to workers. These information relate to workers paid by employers solely, and don’t embrace self-employment revenue.
Estimates of the variety of paid workers and worker earnings from PAYE are classed as experimental statistics as they’re nonetheless of their growth section. Because of this the information are topic to revisions. The HMRC PAYE covers the entire inhabitants quite than a pattern of workers or corporations. Knowledge are based mostly on the place workers reside and never the placement of their place of business inside the UK. Knowledge are seasonally adjusted however not adjusted for inflation. A comparability of earnings statistics from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) and HMRC Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Actual Time Data (RTI) is on the market on the NISRA web site at: Comparability ASHE and PAYE RTI
HMRC’s statistics on the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme had been printed on 4 November 2021 and can be found right here: Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme statistics 4 November 2021. The subsequent publication of those statistics is 16 December 2021.
Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme ‘Employments’ are outlined in line with the scheme eligibility standards and is a jobs-based measure. A person employed by a couple of employer is counted as soon as for every employment furloughed.
The Labour Market Report might be of curiosity to coverage makers, public our bodies, the enterprise group, banks, financial commentators, lecturers, and most people with an curiosity within the native economic system.
The subsequent Labour Market Report might be printed on the NISRA web site on Tuesday 18 January 2022.
For media enquiries contact the Division for the Economic system Press Workplace at: pressoffice@economy-ni.gov.uk
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Accountable statistician:
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