Date revealed:
17 Could 2022
The labour market statistics have been revealed at the moment by the Northern Eire Statistics & Analysis Company.
Labour market statistics revealed
Payrolled staff now increased than pre-COVID for the eleventh consecutive month
The variety of staff receiving pay by means of HMRC PAYE in NI in April 2022 was 774,600, a rise of 0.4% over the month and 4.5% over the yr. That is the best on document and the eleventh consecutive month that worker numbers have been above pre-COVID ranges.
Earnings from the HMRC PAYE indicated that NI staff had a median month-to-month pay of £1,945 in April 2022, a rise of £6 (0.3%) over the month and £129 (7.1%) over the yr.
Lowest NI Claimant Rely (Experimental Sequence) whole since March 2020
In April 2022, the seasonally adjusted variety of individuals on the claimant rely was 36,500 (3.9% of the workforce), which is a lower of 900 (2.4%) from the earlier month’s revised determine. The April claimant rely stays increased than the pre-pandemic rely in March 2020 (by 23%).
Lower in annual proposed and confirmed redundancy developments proceed
The variety of redundancies proposed in April was low, and consistent with the statistical disclosure management coverage can’t be disclosed (stopping potential identification of particular person companies).
NISRA acquired affirmation that 80 redundancies occurred in April 2022. At 1,810, the annual whole was 69% lower than within the earlier yr. Over the yr Could 2021 to April 2022, 2,210 redundancies have been proposed, 76% lower than within the earlier 12 months.
Labour Drive Survey (LFS) headline measures
The most recent NI seasonally adjusted unemployment charge (the proportion of economically lively individuals age 16 and over who have been unemployed) for the interval January-March 2022 was estimated from the Labour Drive Survey at 2.3%, which is the joint lowest on document. The unemployment charge decreased by 0.4 share factors (pps) over the quarter and by 1.2pps over the yr, marking a return to low charges seen in 2019. The annual change was statistically important and is prone to mirror actual change.
The proportion of individuals aged 16 to 64 in work (the employment charge) elevated by 1.5pps over the quarter and by 2.0pps over the yr to 72.2%. The quarterly change was statistically important. The full variety of weekly hours labored in NI (28.8 million) elevated by 6.4% over the quarter and by 9.9% over the yr.
The financial inactivity charge (the proportion of individuals aged 16 to 64 who weren’t working and never looking for or accessible to work) decreased by 1.2pps over the quarter and over the yr to 26.0%. Neither the quarterly nor annual adjustments have been statistically important.
Commentary
Worker indicators stay constructive with the variety of payrolled staff and degree of payroll earnings above the pre-pandemic degree. Employment ranges (which incorporates self-employed) and whole hours labored nearly returned to pre-pandemic ranges through the newest quarter, while claimant rely and financial inactivity each stay above pre-pandemic ranges. Notably the unemployment charge is the joint lowest on document, marking a return to low charges seen in 2019.
The most recent HMRC payroll knowledge was the best degree on document in April and three.0% above these recorded in March 2020 pre-COVID. A better have a look at the annual enhance (4.5%) in payrolled worker jobs exhibits that the ‘Lodging and meals service actions’ and ‘Arts, leisure and recreation’ sectors reported the most important share will increase over the yr (17%).
Over the primary 4 months of 2022, the variety of confirmed redundancies (170) was the bottom four-month whole on document. Proposed redundancies over the newest twelve month interval (2,210) was 76% decrease than the earlier twelve months.
The Labour Drive Survey exhibits a statistically important lower within the unemployment charge over the yr to January-March 2022 to 2.3% (1.2pps). The change within the employment charge over the quarter can also be statistically important, growing by 1.5pps to 72.2%.
When evaluating to the pre-pandemic ranges, the full variety of hours labored in January-March 2022 was 1.1% beneath, while the employment charge was 0.2pps beneath. Equally, the financial inactivity charge stays 0.2pps above the pre-pandemic place.
Notes to editors:
The statistical report and related tables can be found at: https://www.nisra.gov.uk/statistics/labour-market-and-social-welfare/labour-market-overview
The Northern Eire Statistics and Analysis Company needs to thank the collaborating households for participating within the Labour Drive Survey.
‘Over the quarter’ seek advice from comparisons between the newest quarterly estimates for the interval January-March 2022 and the quarter previous that (i.e. October-December 2021). ‘Over the yr’ seek advice from comparisons between the newest quarterly estimates for the interval January-March 2022 and people of the corresponding quarter one yr beforehand (i.e. January-March 2021). Adjustments which can be discovered to be important in a statistical sense (i.e. the place the estimated change exceeded the variability anticipated from a pattern survey of this dimension and was prone to mirror actual change) will probably be particularly highlighted.
Estimates referring to January-March 2022 must be in contrast with the estimates for October-December 2021. This supplies a extra sturdy estimate than evaluating with the estimates for December-February 2022, because the January and February knowledge are included inside each estimates.
The official measure of unemployment is from the Labour Drive Survey. This measure of unemployment pertains to individuals with no job who have been accessible for work and had both appeared for work within the final 4 weeks or have been ready to start out a job. That is the Worldwide Labour Organisation definition. Labour Drive Survey estimates are topic to sampling error. Because of this the precise determine is prone to be contained in a variety surrounding the estimate quoted. For instance, the unemployment charge is prone to fall inside 0.6pps of the quoted estimate (i.e. between 1.7% and a pair of.9%).
The claimant rely is an administrative knowledge supply derived from Jobs and Advantages Workplaces programs, which data the variety of individuals claiming unemployment-related advantages. In March 2018 the NI claimant rely measure modified from one primarily based solely on Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) to an experimental measure primarily based on JSA claimants and out-of-work Common Credit score (UC) claimants who have been claiming principally for the explanation of being unemployed. These claiming unemployment-related advantages (both UC or JSA) could also be wholly unemployed and looking for work, or could also be employed however with low revenue and/or low hours, that make them eligible for unemployment-related profit help. Beneath UC a broader span of claimants grew to become eligible for unemployment-related profit than beneath the earlier profit regime.
The latest adjustments in claimant rely can largely be attributed to the rise within the numbers of individuals changing into unemployed or having their hours lowered leading to very low earnings beneath the executive earnings threshold. There could also be some individuals, beforehand not eligible for UC because of accomplice earnings, now eligible because of work allowance will increase who would now be included inside the rely. We’re not in a position to determine the extent to which every group has contributed to the rise in claimant rely.
Redundancies are offered by corporations beneath the Employment Rights (Northern Eire) Order 1996 (Amended 8 October 2006) whereby they’re legally required to inform the Division of impending redundancies of 20 or extra staff. Corporations who suggest fewer than 20 redundancies aren’t required to inform the Division, subsequently the figures offered are prone to be an underestimate of whole job losses, nevertheless, it’s not attainable to quantify the extent of the shortfall. All different issues being equal we’d anticipate extra redundancies in sectors dominated by massive companies as they’re the companies that meet the 20 or extra collective redundancy standards.
To stop the potential identification of particular person companies, redundancy totals referring to fewer than 3 companies aren’t disclosed. The Statistical Disclosure Management Coverage is accessible right here: https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/redundancies-background-information. The place the variety of companies doesn’t meet the edge for launch (as detailed within the Statistical Disclosure Management Coverage), particular person month-to-month totals aren’t revealed.
HMRC’s Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Actual Time Data (RTI) system is an administrative knowledge supply. The PAYE RTI system is the system employers use to take Revenue Tax and Nationwide Insurance coverage contributions earlier than they pay wages to staff. These knowledge relate to staff paid by employers solely, and don’t embody self-employment revenue.
Estimates of the variety of paid staff and worker earnings from PAYE are classed as experimental statistics as they’re nonetheless of their growth section. In consequence the info are topic to revisions. Early estimates (flash estimates) for April 2022 are primarily based on round 85% of knowledge, and will probably be topic to revision within the subsequent month’s launch when between 98% and 99% of knowledge will probably be accessible (essential estimates). The dimensions of revisions to essential and flash estimates are comparable for workers, whereas revisions to earnings flash estimates are usually bigger than essential estimate revisions. The HMRC PAYE covers the entire inhabitants reasonably than a pattern of staff or corporations. Knowledge are primarily based on the place staff stay and never the placement of their administrative center inside the UK. Knowledge are seasonally adjusted however not adjusted for inflation.
Immediately’s launch comprises up to date labour market indicators from family surveys and administrative knowledge sources. Though the broad ideas are comparable throughout sources, variations in reference intervals, definitions and methodology exist which influence the interpretation of the statistics. Of specific observe is the ‘location’ of the furloughed within the estimates. Those that have been furloughed beneath the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) or receiving a grant by means of the Self Employment Revenue Help Scheme (SEISS) are included within the Labour Drive Survey (LFS) estimates of employment and never inside the LFS unemployment estimates. Equally, staff on the CJRS are included within the HMRC rely of staff paid by means of payroll, and the Quarterly Employment Survey estimate of worker jobs. In distinction, a proportion of these receiving grants by means of CJRS and SEISS could also be accessing Common Credit score unemployment advantages as a ‘top-up’ cost and are included within the experimental Claimant Rely. The CJRS ended on 30 September 2021, which was additionally the final date for making a SEISS declare.
Following the newest reweighting of LFS estimates in July 2021, the Workplace for Nationwide Statistics (ONS) plan to reweight LFS and Annual Inhabitants Survey (APS) datasets that embody knowledge from March 2020 utilizing RTI knowledge. The Labour Market Report scheduled for launch on 14th June will probably be primarily based on revised knowledge. ONS are because of publish an article on the influence of reweighting on 23 Could, containing indicative estimates of the influence and a extra detailed reweighting timeline. NISRA will replace customers sooner or later.
A brand new format of the Labour Market Report (LMR) is presently in growth utilizing HTML, which is able to additional enhance on accessibility, and the tables hooked up to the LMR are additionally being reviewed and improved. We purpose to roll these out within the coming months and can maintain customers knowledgeable of a timeline for releasing the brand new LMR and tables, together with an replace within the upcoming Labour Market Statistics E-newsletter in June.
The Labour Market Report will probably be of curiosity to coverage makers, public our bodies, the enterprise neighborhood, banks, financial commentators, lecturers, and most of the people with an curiosity within the native financial system.
The following Labour Market Report will probably be revealed on the NISRA web site on Tuesday 14 June 2022.
For media enquiries contact the Division for the Financial system Press Workplace at: pressoffice@economy-ni.gov.uk.
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Suggestions is welcomed and must be addressed to: Accountable statistician: Mark McFetridge, Financial & Labour Market Statistics (ELMS), Mark.McFetridge@nisra.gov.uk or Tel: 028 902 55172.
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