The Northern Eire Composite Financial Index (NICEI) Quarter 1 2022 was revealed as we speak by the Northern Eire Statistics & Analysis Company (NISRA).
NICEI Q1 2022 revealed
Key factors
The important thing factors have been:
NI Financial output elevated over the quarter, yr, 3 yr and rolling 4 quarters
The NICEI signifies that financial output elevated by 0.4 per cent over the quarter to March 2022 and by 7.8 per cent over the yr to March 2022
The place annual progress within the NICEI seems notably robust, you will need to recognise there was some volatility within the NICEI throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. As lockdown measures have been launched to mitigate the unfold of COVID-19 and subsequently eased, this result in the NICEI falling to a sequence low in Q2 2020, adopted by the very best quarterly improve within the NICEI to Q3 2020.
In consequence, it’s maybe price contemplating triennial change, evaluating the change over three years i.e. Quarter 1 2022 and Quarter 1 2019 (the corresponding Quarter 1 earlier than the pandemic) versus annual change with a view to mitigate any volatility arising from the pandemic within the NICEI. When it comes to triennial change, NI financial output has elevated at a slower charge (4.8 per cent) in comparison with the annual change (7.8 per cent) within the NICEI to Q1 2022. Moreover, in Quarter 1 2022, NI Financial Output reached an virtually 15 yr excessive, returning to ranges of financial output final exceeded in Q2 2007.
The rise within the NICEI over the most recent quarter (0.4 per cent) was largely pushed by elevated exercise within the Service Sector which had a optimistic contribution of 0.4 proportion factors (pps). The Public Sector and Manufacturing sector additionally had optimistic contributions with 0.2 pps and 0.1 pps. In distinction, the Development sector had a destructive contribution of 0.3 pps.
NI Financial Exercise elevated at a quicker charge in comparison with UK GDP over the three yr interval
Though the measures usually are not produced on a completely equal foundation, comparisons with the UK present that NI Financial Exercise elevated at a quicker charge than UK GDP triennially (i.e. over 3 years, 4.8 per cent vs 1.3 per cent). Nonetheless, UK GDP grew at a quicker charge than the NICEI over the quarter (0.4 per cent for NI vs 0.8 per cent for the UK), over the yr (7.8 per cent for NI and eight.7 per cent for the UK) and rolling annual common (10.0 per cent for NI and 11.2 per cent for the UK).
Each the Public and Non-public sectors elevated over the quarter, yr, 3 yr and rolling 4 quarters
NI’s Non-public sector output as measured by the NICEI elevated over the quarter (0.3 per cent), over the yr (9.2 per cent) and on a triennial foundation (4.5 per cent). In the meantime, the NICEI Public Sector index additionally elevated over the quarter (0.8 per cent), over the yr (2.8 per cent) and on a triennial foundation (5.4 per cent).
For the Non-public sector, common progress for the 4 quarters to Quarter 1 2022 in comparison with the earlier 4 quarters elevated by 12.5 per cent. While the Public sector (worker jobs) index elevated by 1.9 per cent over the identical interval.
Commentary
The NICEI signifies the rise in financial progress over the quarter, yr, 3 yr and rolling annual common to Quarter 1 2022 was largely pushed by elevated exercise within the Providers Sector.
The Index of Providers (with Providers accounting for 53 per cent of NI GVA) reached its sequence excessive in Q1 2022 – exceeding the earlier sequence excessive achieved within the earlier quarter, This fall 2021. It is usually price noting that in Q1 2022 each the Manufacturing and Public Sectors made a optimistic contribution to NICEI progress over the quarter, yr, triennial and rolling 4 quarter interval. In distinction, the Development Sector skilled a discount in output over the quarter and yr to Q1 2022. As well as, Development Sector output remained flat (i.e. 0.0 pps) over the three years to Q1 2022.
The truth that the Providers sector has reached a sequence excessive and is the principle driver of change within the NICEI has lead the NICEI and Non-public Sector Part Indices to achieve an virtually 15 yr excessive in Q3 2021, returning to ranges of output final exceeded in Q2 2007.
There was a basic enjoyable of restrictions from Q2 2021 by means of to Q1 2022, with restrictions having been usually eliminated at time of writing. Financial exercise had elevated regularly lately (2013-2019) following the extended downturn put up 2007. Lately the NICEI and Non-public Sector Part Indices have recovered from their respective sequence lows in Q2 2020 (which coincided with a interval of strict lockdown restrictions) and have returned to ranges of financial output final exceeded in Q2 2007 and Q3 2007 respectively
The extent of financial exercise in NI at the moment sits 0.1 per cent beneath the utmost worth recorded in Quarter 2 2007 while UK GDP is estimated to be 16.4 per cent above its pre-economic downturn peak recorded in Quarter 1 2008
Notes to editors:
1. The statistical bulletin and related tables can be found on the NI Composite Financial Index web page on the NISRA web site.
2. The NISRA Northern Eire Composite Financial Index (NICEI) is a quarterly measure of the efficiency of the Northern Eire (NI) economic system based mostly on out there official statistics.
3. The NICEI combines current revealed quarterly indices (i.e. Index of Providers (IOS), Index of Manufacturing (IOP), Quarterly Development Enquiry (QCE)), public sector worker jobs knowledge from the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES), and unpublished agricultural output knowledge from the Division of Agriculture, Atmosphere and Rural Affairs (DAERA). These indices are weighted utilizing ONS Regional Accounts Gross Worth Added (GVA) knowledge to offer a proxy measure of whole financial output within the NI economic system on a quarterly foundation.
4. The NICEI output measures relate to the primary quarter (January – March) of 2022. These estimates are based mostly on surveys of companies and estimates of change are topic to sampling error. Figures for 1 / 4 could also be revised if extra full info subsequently turns into out there.
5. The NICEI again sequence is calculated every quarter, usually the revisions to the NICEI are fairly minor. The revisions this quarter have been extra noticeable, additional info is on the market within the detailed statistical bulletin out there on the NI composite financial index (NISRA).
6. This report will probably be of curiosity to Ministers, coverage makers, public our bodies, the enterprise neighborhood, banks, financial commentators, teachers and most people with an curiosity within the native economic system.
7. Additional info and tables from every of the info sources can be found on the NISRA web site.
8. To maintain updated with information from the Division you possibly can comply with us on the next social media channels:
9. For media enquiries contact the Division for the Economic system Press Workplace at pressoffice@economy-ni.gov.uk
10. The Government Info Service operates an out of hours service for media enquiries solely between 1800hrs and 0800hrs Monday to Friday and at weekends and public holidays. The obligation press officer may be contacted on 028 9037 8110.
11. Suggestions is welcomed and needs to be addressed to: Accountable economist: David Leonard, Financial & Labour Market Statistics Department (ELMS), Tel: 028 9052 9385.
12. Comply with NISRA on Twitter – @NISRA
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