The Northern Eire Composite Financial Index (NICEI) Quarter 4 2021 was printed at present by the Northern Eire Statistics & Analysis Company (NISRA).
NICEI This fall 2021 printed
The important thing factors have been:
NI Financial output elevated over the quarter, yr, 2 yr and rolling 4 quarters.
The NICEI signifies that financial output elevated by 1.2% over the quarter to December 2021. In the meantime financial output within the yr to December 2021 elevated by 4.9% in actual phrases in comparison with the identical interval within the earlier yr ie Quarter 4 2020. The place annual development within the NICEI seems significantly sturdy, it is very important acknowledge there was some volatility within the NICEI in the course of the COVID pandemic. As lockdown measures have been launched to mitigate the unfold of COVID-19 and subsequently eased, this result in the NICEI falling to a collection low in Q2 2020, adopted by the very best quarterly enhance within the NICEI to Q3 2020. Consequently, it’s maybe value contemplating biennial change, evaluating the change over two years ie Quarter 4 2021 and Quarter 4 2019 (the earlier Quarter 4 earlier than the pandemic) versus annual change with a purpose to mitigate any volatility arising from the pandemic within the NICEI. When it comes to biennial change, NI financial output has elevated at a slower fee (3.4%) in comparison with the annual change (4.9%) within the NICEI to This fall 2021. Moreover, in Quarter 4 2021, NI Financial Output reached a 13 yr excessive , returning to ranges of financial output final exceeded in Q2 2008. The rise within the NICEI over the newest quarter (1.2%) was largely pushed by elevated exercise within the Providers sector; which had constructive contributions of 0.7 share factors (pps). That stated, all different sectors had constructive contributions, with Manufacturing contributing 0.2 pps, Building and the Public Sector each contributing 0.1 pps every.
NI Financial Exercise elevated at a quicker fee in comparison with UK GDP over the two yr and rolling annual common intervals.
Though the measures usually are not produced on a completely equal foundation, comparisons with the UK present that NI Financial Exercise elevated at a decrease fee to UK GDP over the quarter (1.2% vs 1.3%) and the yr (4.9% for NI and 6.6% for the UK). Nevertheless NI output grew at a quicker fee than UK GDP biennially (ie over 2 years, 3.4% vs 0.0%) and over the rolling annual common interval ie the common of the latest 4 quarters in comparison with the common of the earlier 4 quarters ( 7.6% vs 7.4%).
Each the Public and Non-public sectors elevated over the quarter, yr, 2 yr and rolling 4 quarters.
NI’s Non-public sector output as measured by the NICEI elevated over the quarter (1.4%), over the yr (5.8%) and on a biennial foundation (3.5%). In the meantime, the NICEI Public Sector index additionally elevated over the quarter (0.7%), over the yr (2.2%) and on a biennial foundation (2.9%). For the Non-public sector, common development for the 4 quarters to Quarter 4 2021 in comparison with the earlier 4 quarters elevated by 9.5%. While the Public sector (worker jobs) index elevated by 1.4% over the identical interval.
Commentary
The NICEI signifies the rise in financial development over the quarter, yr, 2 yr and rolling annual common [1] to Quarter 4 2021 was largely pushed by elevated exercise within the Providers Sector The Index of Providers (which accounts for 53% of NI GVA) reached its collection excessive in This fall 2021 – exceeding the earlier collection excessive achieved within the earlier quarter, Q3 2021. Additionally it is value noting in This fall 2021 that not one of the remaining sectors of the NI economic system (Manufacturing, Building or Public Sector) made a unfavorable contribution to NICEI development over the quarter, biennial or rolling 4 quarter interval. That stated, the development sector skilled a discount in output over the yr to This fall 2021, whereas the remaining sectors skilled development over the interval. This lead the NICEI and Non-public Sector Part Indices to achieve a 13 yr excessive in Q3 2021, returning to ranges of output final exceeded in Q2 2008 There was a common stress-free of restrictions from Q2 2021 via to Q1 2022 (albeit with some restrictions re – launched on the finish of This fall 2021). Financial exercise had elevated regularly lately (2013-2019) following the extended downturn publish 2007. Just lately the NICEI and Non-public Sector Part Indices have recovered from their respective collection lows in Q2 2020 (which coincided with a interval of strict lockdown restrictions) and have returned to ranges of financial output final exceeded in Q2 2008. Whereas not totally equal, the NICEI estimates of output in NI and the ONS estimates of UK GDP present that each economies elevated over the quarter by 1.2% for NI and 1.3% for the UK. NI financial output elevated at a slower fee than the UK over the yr at a fee of 4.9% for NI and 6.6% for UK. Conversely, NI financial output fared higher than the UK by way of biennial development (Quarter 4 2021 vs Quarter 4 2019) rising by 3.4% while the UK confirmed no development. Over the rolling annual common, (evaluating the final 4 quarters to the earlier 4 quarters) NI grew at a quicker fee than the UK, rising by 7.6% while the UK grew by 7.4%. The extent of financial exercise in NI at present sits 1.1% under the utmost worth recorded in Quarter 2 2007 while UK GDP is estimated to be 15.4% above its pre-economic downturn peak.
[1] The common of the latest 4 quarters in comparison with the common of the earlier 4 quarters.
Notes to editors:
1. The statistical bulletin and related tables can be found on the NI Composite Financial Index web page of the NISRA web site.
2. The NISRA Northern Eire Composite Financial Index (NICEI) is a quarterly measure of the efficiency of the Northern Eire (NI) economic system primarily based on accessible official statistics.
3. The NICEI combines present printed quarterly indices (ie Index of Providers (IOS), Index of Manufacturing (IOP), Quarterly Building Inquiry (QCE)), public sector worker jobs information from the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES), and unpublished agricultural output information from the Division of Agriculture, Atmosphere and Rural Affairs (DAERA). These indices are weighted utilizing ONS Regional Accounts Gross Worth Added (GVA) information to offer a proxy measure of whole financial output within the NI economic system on a quarterly foundation.
4. The NICEI output measures relate to the fourth quarter (October – December) of 2021. These estimates are primarily based on surveys of companies and estimates of change are topic to sampling error. Figures for 1 / 4 could also be revised if extra full info subsequently turns into accessible.
5. The NICEI again collection is calculated every quarter, sometimes the revisions to the NICEI are moderately minor. The revisions this quarter have been extra noticeable. Additional info is obtainable within the detailed statistical bulletin accessible on the NI Composite Financial Index web page of the NISRA web site.
6. This report shall be of curiosity to Ministers, coverage makers, public our bodies, the enterprise neighborhood, banks, financial commentators, lecturers and most of the people with an curiosity within the native economic system.
7. Additional info and tables from every of the information sources can be found on the Financial system web page of the NISRA web site.
8. To maintain updated with information from the Division you’ll be able to observe us on the next social media channels:
9. For media inquiries contact the Division for the Financial system Press Workplace at pressoffice@economy-ni.gov.uk
10. The Government Info Service operates an out of hours service for media inquiries solely between 1800hrs and 0800hrs Monday to Friday and at weekends and public holidays. The obligation press officer could be contacted on 028 9037 8110.
12. Suggestions is welcomed and ought to be addressed to: Accountable economist, David Leonard, Financial & Labor Market Statistics Department (ELMS), David.leonard@nisra.gov.uk Tel: 028 9052 9385.
13. Comply with NISRA on Twitter
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